BTC $75,330
We checked the viral claims about Bitcoin and the sky against every event since July 2010. Each claim is quoted as written. Each count uses the same daily closes as the rest of this site, and compares with any stretch of the same length.
Counted through . Claims, windows and rules were written down before the count.
HISTORICALLY, SUPERMOON DAYS SEE BTC RALLY 11–18% (21/21 HITS)
Weeks of +11% or more after every supermoon, against any week.
Supermoons since July 2010: 63. A week of +11% or more after 10 of them (16%). Any week: 16%. Up at all: 33 of 63 (52%); any week 55%.
About the same as any stretch (normal 28–41 of 63).
Full Moon correlates with price increase 68% of the time within 3 days (average gain +2.3%)
The 3 days from each full moon, against any 3 days.
3 days from each of 202 full moons: up 112 times (55%), average +0.9%. Any 3 days: up 55%, average +1.0%.
About the same as any stretch (normal 99–122 of 202).
volatility during Mercury retrograde windows is often 34% higher than average
Daily swings inside every Mercury retrograde against outside them, and against random calendars of the same retrogrades.
Daily swings inside all 51 Mercury retrogrades since July 2010 vs outside: 0.87× (−13%). Random calendars of the same retrogrades: 0.82–1.25×.
Inside the random range.
#Bitcoin bottom is in according to the blood moon cycle. Not sometimes. But this has worked 4 out of 4 cycles. 100% hit rate.
Did the lowest close of the 6 months around each total lunar eclipse fall within a week of it? Against any day.
Total lunar eclipses with 90 days of prices on both sides: 16. The lowest close of those 6 months fell within a week of the eclipse 2 times (13%). Any day: 4%.
About the same as any stretch (normal 0–2 of 16).
Every Bitcoin cycle has 3 blood moons. The third one has marked the exact bottom every single time. November 2022.
The third total lunar eclipse of each series: was it the 6-month low, give or take a day?
Third blood moons of a series since 2010 with 90 days of prices on both sides: 4 (2011-12-10, 2015-04-04, 2019-01-21, 2026-03-03). The 6-month low fell on that day ±1 day: 0 of 4. Any day: 1%.
Too few to tell.
Lunar Strategy: Buy new moon/sell full moon yields +32.2% annualized in Bitcoin (2014-2025)
Holding from each new moon to the next full moon, against its mirror and against holding all the time.
2014–2025: new moon to full moon +34.9% a year, full moon to new moon +10.3% a year, holding all the time +48.8% a year. Since July 2010: +57.0% · +52.0% · +132.5%.
Numbers only: a strategy that holds half the time is compared with its mirror and with holding.
68% of full moons linked with sharp price moves
Moves of 5% or more either way in the week after each full moon, against any week.
Full moons followed by a move of 5% or more either way: 105 of 202 (52%). Any week: 50%.
About the same as any stretch (normal 90–113 of 202).
Not a forecast or advice. How we count